Eric's Insight: ASEAN-US Summit effect on China is limited

ASEAN and the United States are set to convene a Special Summit to celebrate four and a half decades of the ASEAN-US Dialogue Relations on May 12-13 in Washington DC, said an ASEAN Secretariat statement on April 18.

As China is steadily move towards the center of the international arena, the United States seems to have been restless these years, trying all possible means to drag the Chinese neighbors into its fields of influence or the so-called democratic camp.

United States President Joe Biden (center) takes part in the ASEAN-US Summit on the sidelines of the 2021 ASEAN summits held online in Bandar Seri Begawan on Oct. 26, 2021. (Online photo)

Limited effect in economy

In spite of the high expectations from the US side, the coming summit may not look perfect as some imagined, with its full attendance in dubiousness. The de facto Myanmar leader Min Aung Hlaing couldn't have been invited by Biden, while the Philippines leader Rodrigo Duterte has said more than once that he’d never visit the US.

The summit was first scheduled in late March but was suspended due to the allegedly conflicting timetable arrangements of certain ASEAN leaders. The Thai administration was said to be very unhappy with the US side that had unilaterally settled the date without even consulting via the diplomatic missions.

While naming China as the strategic competitor, the 2022 version of the US Indo-Pacific strategy said it sees ASEAN as partner and respects the ASEAN centrality, but the US has always failed to match the words with its actions.

Frankly, it’s much easier for the commemorative summit to be held in Jakarta or Singapore, showing the ASEAN’s centric role and saving the 10-plus hours of flights by seven or eight ASEAN leaders.

In a letter to Cambodian premier Hun Sen earlier this year, Biden invited the ASEAN leaders to Washington for their “common goals”, and later the public opinion of international media said the summit is actually aimed at China, while the US secretary of state Antony Blinken revealed the Myanmar issue would be discussed at the meeting.

The US may lure some ASEAN member to its side in the pretext of Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea, but given the China-ASEAN interdependence in economy and regional security, the ASEAN leaders will be reluctant to join the US side against China in either words or action.

For example, China-Vietnam trade volume stood at USD 40.9 billion in the first quarter of 2022, a year-on-year increase of 21%. China is now the top source of Vietnamese import.

So, it’s not in the interest of the ASEAN members to simply follow the US security agenda, for the country has already threatened regional security with either QUAD or AUKUS cliques. Instead, it is wise of the ASEAN leaders to stay neutral and be wooed by the US and China at the same time.

The US side may also ask the ASEAN members to join the Indo-Pacific economic initiatives, and this might be accepted by some if the US could comfort the ASEAN leaders sensibly.

A Jakarta Post report on April 27 said ASEAN leaders should welcome United States President Joe Biden’s Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, but never as part of the overall US security strategy in the region.

 

Peaceful waters of the Pacific Ocean (Online photo) 

Assimilated in Chinese waters

Following the 2008 world financial crisis, the nature of the Sino-US relations have been largely changed from cooperation to competition under the realist ideas in international relations, namely, man is evil in nature and the intention of states are unknown.

So the US is getting increasingly anxious that the rising China will eventually grab the hegemonic power and claim to be number one in the world, undermining its interests and threatening its national security. Actually this shows an ignorance to the Chinese tradition and philosophy.

For millennia, the Chinese forefathers have been holding the idea of states co-existing and living in harmony with each other even they are differentiated in diverse aspects.

In history, the majority Chinese Han ethnic group did not invade its neighbors or the west, and ancient China’s interaction with the Arabic world and Europe were largely limited to commence via the silk road.

Admittedly, some westerners are still horrified of the Mongolian conquest into the west in the 13th century, but most of them did not know the Mongolians also marched southward and occupied all the territories traditionally dwelt by the Han ethnic group.

Unexpectedly, the Mongolian occupations in central and south China were followed by assimilation, where the northern conquerors married the southern folks and adapted themselves into the Han life styles. Now Mongolians are a peaceful member of the Chinese family.

Cultural assimilation has been going on actually during the whole-course of Chinese history, from the localization of Nepal-originated Buddhism since the Northern and Southern Dynasties period (386-589) to the introduction of natural sciences that came to the orient with western cannon balls.

Also, the typical character of Chinese man shows a sense of gentleness, moderation and even obedience, without obvious combative nature involved. They tend to be modest and keep a low profile in dealing with social situations, and so do Chinese state leaders in handling international relations.

An indicative image in Chinese philosophy is water. The water is respected among Chinese folks for its excellence in nourishing all living beings on earth while not struggling for its interests and benefits. And it tends to be seated at a lowest place, as is taught by Taoist theory.

So China is inclusive like the vast Pacific Ocean, seeing the ASEAN-US summit as it is. In the long run, all the US restlessness and offensives against China will be assimilated into the peaceful Chinese waters so long as the country maintains growth and composure.

But as a token of response to the coming summit, the Chinese side could consider further aligning its Belt and Road Initiative with the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific, while joining hands with the ASEAN states in building a neighborhood community of a shared future, largely as what has ever been going on over the past years. 

(The writer Eric Wang Shixue is an English editor with the Mekong Magazine based in Kunming, Yunnan province. The view in the article does not necessarily represent that of Yunnan Gateway.)